What is COVID-19 reinfection rate? New study offers clues

p 1 lancet covid re infections surprisingly likely especially among this group

The nice folks of Denmark have as soon as once more offered their wonderful, centralized healthcare information to avoid wasting us all, this time permitting researchers to trace the COVID-19 an infection charges of 4 million Danes final yr, to see what number of have been contaminated twice. The outcomes have been revealed in The Lancet final week.

The study discovered that simply 0.65% of people that examined constructive for COVID-19 within the spring have been reinfected later within the yr. In context, this quantity is each surprisingly excessive and surprisingly low: It signifies that most individuals is not going to get reinfected—however if you issue within the nation’s low 2% an infection price, it signifies that *of the Danes who’re truly twice-exposed to COVID-19*, a stunning variety of them turn out to be reinfected. Amongst younger and center aged Danes, their re-infection price could possibly be round 1 in 5—which is vital, if not alarming.

One group did show a reasonably low protecting price: folks over age 65, who had solely a 47% safety price. “Pure safety, particularly amongst older folks, can’t be relied on,” wrote the researchers, who name for continued social distancing round folks over age 65, in addition to vaccinations.

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Notably, safety towards repeat an infection continued for no less than six months.

Some caveats: This is the primary large-scale study on reinfections, a subject that is not well-understood by scientists. This paper primarily sketches out that reinfection is taking place on a notable scale in a single nation, however doesn’t delve into the main points. For instance:

  • The study didn’t hint strains of COVID-19. (It’s potential that each one the reinfections have been from a selected variant of the virus. Or not. We don’t know.)
  • The researchers additionally couldn’t observe signs. (It’s potential that most of the individuals who examined constructive twice weren’t symptomatic each instances. We don’t know.)

Largely, the paper demonstrates that extra analysis is urgently wanted. This work was carried out by two universities in Denmark, in addition to the European Centre for Illness Prevention and Management.