track variant with CDC Nowcast tool

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Omicron has turn into the Google Search of American COVID-19 variants in a matter of 5 quick weeks. It now dominates an estimated 98.3% of cases nationwide, in line with the most recent modeled information from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. For the newest week for which it has figures—January 2 to eight—the CDC says omicron seized an excellent larger share of whole infections in america. For the prior week, its estimated proportion was 92.3%, revised down from 95.4% when the information first turned out there.

Since landing in California again on December 1, the variant has unfold with alarming alacrity. It accounted for under 58.6% of circumstances as not too long ago because the week of Christmas. For the reason that new yr started, it’s been the dominant pressure in all ten U.S. areas the CDC mannequin tracks. The newest numbers shifted it upward once more. Omicron now accounts for 99% or extra of circumstances in three U.S. areas: Area 2 (New Jersey, New York, and U.S. Caribbean territories), Area 4 (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee), and Area 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and tribal territories).

Delta, in the meantime, has virtually fallen off the chart, comparatively talking, making up simply 1.7% of the circumstances modeled by the CDC’s Nowcast tool.

[Screenshot via CDC]Up to date each Tuesday, Nowcast gives a snapshot of how COVID variants of concern are spreading in one thing intently approximating actual time, so public-health officers can take sooner motion. It bases the variants’ prevalence on genomic-sequencing information. One hangup of such a hurried turnaround, although, is that it means the dataset isn’t at all times full, which might have an effect on its accuracy. In previous weeks, it’s been revised substantially because the CDC gathers further samples nationwide.

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No matter omicron’s precise share of the entire proper now, extra well being consultants have began warning this can be simply the beginning of its world takeover. The World Well being Group estimated today that in coming two months, the variant may infect most of Europe. Observing present transmission traits, WHO Europe director Hans Kluge mentioned, “At this price, greater than 50% of the inhabitants within the area will likely be contaminated with Omicron within the subsequent six to eight weeks,” a scale he famous could be “unprecedented.”