The 50 counties on the biggest risk for top warmth, for instance, noticed their populations develop 4.7% between 2016 and 2020. (Of that group of fifty, Williamson County, Texas, confirmed the largest soar in inhabitants, rising 16.3%.) On the identical time, the counties with the bottom risk of maximum warmth really misplaced residents. The price of housing is probably going one issue: In 40 of the 50 counties most at risk for excessive warmth, residence gross sales in 2020 had been decrease than the nationwide median value of $315,000.
Populations additionally grew within the 50 counties with the largest share of houses dealing with drought, fireplace, flood, and storm risk. In counties the place residents face the bottom risk of experiencing drought, fires, and flooding, populations shrank. The one exception to the development had been counties at low risk from storms, the place populations grew by 0.9%.
That’s not to say that some individuals aren’t already deciding to relocate due to repeated hurricanes, wildfires, or different disasters that are extra frequent and extra intense due to climate change. And which may change into extra frequent. In a survey of two,000 U.S. residents earlier this yr, Redfin discovered that almost half of respondents who deliberate to transfer within the subsequent yr mentioned that disasters or excessive temperatures had been an element of their choices. Three-quarters mentioned that they had been hesitant to purchase houses in areas with climate risk.
However the potential of struggling a catastrophe remains to be outweighed by price. “We predict homebuyers are typically conscious of climate risk, however we additionally assume it’s not the highest concern for almost all of them. For most individuals, the highest concern is affordability,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “And the truth is that quite a lot of places dealing with higher risk for climate change are within the South and different components of the nation the place the price of dwelling is extra reasonably priced.”